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Tua Tagovailoa NFL Betting Picks

NFL: Miami Dolphins Minicamp
Vegas Sharps experts take a look at the Tua Tagovailoa NFL betting props to see if the southpaw will notch over 25.5 passing touchdowns or if durability concerns will cash in on the under. The 25-year-old Hawaiin had a breakout 2022 season leading the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating and 25 TDs despite missing three games due to concussions. With explosive targets in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua posted an 8-5 record as a starter, displaying the potential of a franchise quarterback. ESPN2 News expert NFL picks staff breaks down the 5th overall pick from the 2020 draft to see where the smart money lies.

The Upsides

  • Fast Release: Tagovailoa is a bright signal-caller that processes information quickly, which enables him to distribute the ball efficiently and exploit defensive vulnerabilities. He has one of the quickest releases in the league which is one reason why he was only sacked only 4.9% of the time (6.7% league average).
  • Accuracy: Tua has displayed a remarkable ability to place the ball precisely in the hands of his receivers with touch and can thread the needle on short-to-intermediate throws. His precision allows him to expose defenses on curls, out routes, and jump balls, making him a nightmare for defenders.
  • Agility: Tagovailoa’s elusiveness allows him to escape pressure and extend drives, providing an extra dose of unpredictability that keeps defenders on their toes. He has shown the ability to extend plays with his legs, maneuvering around the pocket and keeping defenses guessing. While not necessarily a dual-threat quarterback, Tagovailoa’s athleticism and mobility give him an added dimension.

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The Downsides

  • Concussions: In his 3-year career Tua has been the victim of more concussions than a prizefighting palooka. In 2022 the smallish signal-caller suffered two confirmed concussions and one suspected concussion. While he has shown toughness, there are concerns for his well-being that could cut his season and potentially his career short.
  • Pocket Presence: Another area of improvement for Tagovailoa lies in his pocket awareness. At times, he has displayed a tendency to hold on to the ball for too long, resulting in brutal hits or missed opportunities. Enhancing his ability to feel pressure and make quick decisions under duress will be pivotal in his growth as an NFL quarterback.
  • Throwing Deep: While Tua worked diligently to improve this area, his deep ball still lacks consistency. There have been instances where he fails to connect on long-range passes, leaving potential big plays on the field.

Tua Tagovailoa NFL Betting Picks Outlook

The Dolphins might need to modify Tagovailoa’s listed weight of 217 Lb. to about 230 Lbs. after an off-season spent lifting weights to bulk up. Tua’s added mass along with the improved play of 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson at right tackle should help keep Miami’s signal-caller on the field. With a talented supporting cast and the offensive creativity of head coach Mike McDaniel, Tua could throw for 30+ touchdowns.

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